Sunshine State of Mind: The moveBuddha 2023-2024 Florida Migration Report

Jeff Bezos. Scott Baio. Guy Fieri. Sylvester Stallone. What do they have in common? Maybe more than you think. The 4 will be new neighbors, having all uprooted and moved to Florida in 2023. 

It seems, at least among the celebrity set, that Florida’s sunshine hasn’t faded since its sky-high in-migration broke records in 2021 and 2022. 

In fact, when 2022’s census numbers were published, Florida was the nation’s big winner, gaining almost half a million people that year. In 2023? Florida was still on top of the world, boasting the highest population growth from domestic (state-to-state) moves.

What’s on tap for 2024? Florida is still riding its wave of popularity.

According to moveBuddha’s most up-to-date user search trends, which predict upcoming moves based on requests for moving services, Florida and its famous sun won’t stop shining anytime soon.

We wanted to know where newcomers are settling and how the hurricane of new moves has affected Florida cities, so we checked out the overall population trends from our own fresh data on Florida’s demographic trends. Here are our findings of the most popular areas for inbound moves from 2023 and heading into 2024.

Table of Contents:

1. Florida Moves: Looking at statewide trends into 2024
2. Florida Gains: Which state residents are moving to Florida the most?
3. Florida Exits: Which states are Floridians moving to the most? 
4. Top Move-to Cities Forecast: Which Florida cities are most popular to move to?
5. Sources and Methodology

Big Takeaways

• Orlando, Jacksonville, and Tampa lead 2024 move searches. The latest mover search data shows these are the most searched move-to cities so far this year. 
• Moves from California and New York lead inflow into Florida. For 3 consecutive years, 20% of Florida’s moves in from other states come from these two. 
• Floridians head to Texas more than any other state — but these two states have a nearly equal flow of moving traffic between them.
• While in North Carolina, Georgia, and Tennessee, more people move from Florida to these states than vice versa in 2024.
• #1 The Villages ranks first in Florida and nationwide for the highest ratio of moves in-to-out, driven by retirees.
• 2023’s top move-to cities #1 The Villages, #2 Ocala and #3 Davenport all saw home values drop in the past year, between 1% and 4%.
• Riding the wave of popularity, Florida added nearly 3 million new residents between 2010 and 2020.
• Florida continues to attract more moves from out of state than it loses to exits. Early 2024 data shows Florida’s in-migration rate at 1.12 for every person moving out.

 

1. Moving to Florida: Decade-Long Growth Continues into 2024

Still on the upswing, Florida is slated to hit 22.9 million by April 2024. That’s building on the past decade of movers which ballooned Florida’s population to more than 21.5 million residents. From 2010 to 2020, Florida even overtook New York to become the country’s 3rd most populous state. 

In the process, the Peninsula State wooed nearly 3 million (2,736,877), new residents from 2010 to 2020, part of a trend that saw southern and western states winning the lion’s share of U.S. movers. With Florida’s help, those states grew more than 10%.

There is also a more recent spike in moves to Florida.

In 2021, moveBuddha data showed that Florida saw the sharpest increase in the ratio of inbound moves to outbound moves from 2020 to 2021, an increase of 43 percentage points.

And since 2020, while COVID-era relocations simmer down, Florida’s growth remains strong. There are still 1.12 moves into Florida so far in 2024 for every move-out, and we haven’t even made it to moving season. 

What’s the appeal? Florida ranks 2nd for most coastline — a big attraction — and 2nd most for population aged 65+. Since more than 10,000 baby boomers reach retirement age daily, that means a lot of moving trucks.

 

Sure, Florida’s seen a 2024 drop in overall growth speed, but growth continues. In fact, the state ranked #2 in the nation in 2023 for net inflow. So far in 2024, it’s slipped to #3 (but the year has just begun). 

Looking only at the 10 states with the highest volume of queries in both 2023 and 2024, sorted by 2024 rank: 

State	2023 net inflow volume rank	2024 net inflow volume rank
Texas	3	1
North Carolina	1	2
Florida	2	3
Colorado	4	4
Georgia	5	5
Arizona	6	6
Washington	7	7
New York	8	8
Illinois	9	9
California	10	10

 

Competition with Texas is tight, with both states ranking among the top three states for both volume and net inflow (earning the most moves from other states). 

Top contenders all share a warm climate, but are also notable for the lower taxes that may play a part in attracting the ultra-wealthy. 

Take Bezos’ move to his hometown of Miami this year: financial analysts at Forbes call the migration’s trendsters “taxbirds” and detail how they’ll benefit from fleeing the chilly winters of northern and blue states, with high state tax rates.

 

2. Which states are charging Florida’s growth?

Florida may have a reputation as a vacation destination. Still, lately, many are stowing their suitcases in the closet and putting down roots.

We wanted to know who they are.

As it turns out, a substantial slice of the big Orange comes from New Yorkers and Californians calling it quits. According to the 2023 moveBuddha search data, of all queries for moves to Florida from other state, both NY and CA accounted for a little over 10%, for a total of just over 20% collectively. That figure is unchanged since last year.

The runners-up? New Jersey, with 6% of movers headed south, Texas (5.7%), and Pennsylvania (5%). 

New Jersey is a top ten state for high income tax, which might explain why movers are seeking respite in Florida (Florida is in the bottom 10). But newfound competition between lower tax-burden states and Florida is emerging, as Sun Belt cities with similar tax policies, politics, and weather begin to compete with one another for residents.

Influxes in both Florida and Texas may be driving up prices in both locations, prompting residents to seek their fortunes elsewhere. For example, the average home sale price in Florida is up 3.7% over last year, while listings are down more than 10%, driving a housing crunch and lower overall supply to accommodate increased demand from new moves.

Even more pronounced is the increase in home values since 2020. Homes in Florida are up 47%, more than any other state.

State	December 2020 Home Values (Zillow	December 2023 Home Values (Zillow	% change in home values from 2020 to 2023
California	$592,028	$750,181	27%
New York	$368,077	$448,648	22%
Florida	$263,110	$387,761	47%
Texas	$228,041	$296,779	30%

Which states are moving to Florida the most in 2024, so far?

According to the latest moveBuddha search data, of all queries for moves to Florida from other states in early 2024, both CA and NY remain in the top two spots, followed by Texas, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania. 

2024 Rank	State	% of all moves into Florida from out of state in 2024
1	California	10.2%
2	New York	10.0%
3	Texas	6.6%
4	New Jersey	6.3%
5	Pennsylvania	5.1%
6	Illinois	4.5%
7	North Carolina	4.2%
8	Virginia	4.2%
9	Massachusetts	4.1%
10	Washington	3.4%

For the third consecutive year, mirroring trends seen in 2022 and 2023, the majority of people moving into Florida are coming from California and New York, again accounting for 20% of all queries for moves into Florida from out of state.

 

3. And which states do Floridians head to most? 

When Florida residents choose to leave the state, which states are they headed to the most? 

We looked at all queries for moves exiting Florida into other states in 2023 and found which are most popular for moves exiting the Sunshine State. The top destinations are Texas, North Carolina, New York, California, and Georgia.

But, that doesn’t tell the whole story. 

Looking at the exchange of moves between states, like all moves between Texas and Florida or all moves between Georgia and Florida, there are slightly more Florida residents looking to move to those states than the opposite. Of the moves between Florida and Georgia, 51% are movers heading from Florida to Georgia, while 49% are movers heading in the opposite direction.

In the bargain, Florida loses to Georgia just 2% of the time, and Florida loses to Texas just 4% of the time. 

However, in North Carolina, it’s clearer that Florida is losing out. Florida loses to North Carolina 31% of the time that residents from those 2 states choose to move to the other. 

When Florida and New York residents go head to head, Florida’s advantage is massive. It wins 66% of the moves between those two states. The same goes for California. 

State	% of moves into Florida from state	% of moves out of Florida to state	% difference in exchange of moves (*See note)
Texas	48%	52%	-4%
North Carolina	35%	65%	-31%
New York	66%	34%	32%
California	66%	34%	31%
Georgia	49%	51%	-2%

Note: A negative indicates a net loss for Florida.

 

Florida loses more residents to the Carolinas, West Virginia, Tennessee, and South Dakota than it gains  

While Florida’s overall a winner in the competition for new residents from other states, there are some states that are gaining far more Floridians than residents they’re losing to the Orange State.

Floridians are heading to South Carolina, West Virginia, North Carolina, Tennessee, and South Dakota over 19% more often than the reverse. 

Three of these states are already in the South, and all boast lower-than-average costs of living. What does that mean? When Florida goes head-to-head against other states, it’s losing to states that can offer residents what Florida also claims to offer: affordable living and shovel-free winters.

State	% of moves into Florida from state	% of moves out of Florida to state	% difference in exchange of moves (*See note)
South Carolina	31%	69%	-38%
West Virginia	34%	66%	-33%
North Carolina	35%	65%	-31%
Tennessee	38%	62%	-23%
South Dakota	40%	60%	-19%

Note: A negative indicates a net loss for Florida.

Which states are Floridians heading to the most in 2024, so far? 

Looking at early 2024 queries for moves exiting Florida, in the first few months of this year Florida residents are looking to move to Texas, California, New York, North Carolina, and Georgia the most. 

Rank	State	% of moves exiting Florida to other states
1	Texas	7.7%
2	California	6.4%
3	New York	6.4%
4	North Carolina	6.1%
5	Georgia	4.9%
6	Pennsylvania	4.8%
7	Tennessee	4.2%
8	Virginia	3.9%
9	Massachusetts	3.6%
10	Colorado	3.6%

 

And following trends from 2023, North Carolina, Georgia, and Tennessee continue to remain attractive destinations for Florida residents. All three states have a greater number of Floridians moving in than the reverse (residents from these states relocating to Florida).

State	% of moves into Florida from state	% of moves out of Florida to state	% difference in exchange of moves (*See note)
Texas	49%	51%	-2%
New York	64%	36%	27%
California	64%	36%	29%
North Carolina	44%	56%	-12%
Georgia	37%	63%	-25%
Pennsylvania	55%	45%	9%
Tennessee	37%	63%	-26%
Virginia	55%	45%	10%
Massachusetts	56%	44%	11%
Colorado	48%	52%	-4%

Note: A negative indicates a net loss for Florida.

 

4. Data Shows Everyone's Headed to The Villages, Ocala, and Davenport

When we crunch our moveBuddha numbers we like to compare inflow to outflow. This shows us how many more people are moving into an area than out and often sheds light on cities especially popular to move into (vs out of).

Using an in-to-out ratio we can see which cities are attracting proportionally more moves in than out.

Here are the Florida cities that were most popular in 2023:

 

Rank (Higher inflow than outflow in 2023)	City, ST	2023 Moves In-to-Out
1	The Villages, FL	363 to 100
2	Ocala, FL	270 to 100
3	Davenport, FL	232 to 100
4	Saint Augustine, FL	213 to 100
5	Pensacola, FL	189 to 100
6	Zephyrhills, FL	182 to 100
7	Panama City, FL	178 to 100
8	Miami Beach, FL	178 to 100
9	Stuart, FL	177 to 100
10	Lakeland, FL	172 to 100
11	Daytona Beach, FL	169 to 100
12	Clermont, FL	169 to 100
13	Kissimmee, FL	163 to 100
14	Deland, FL	160 to 100
15	Melbourne, FL	158 to 100
16	Milton, FL	153 to 100
17	Orlando, FL	149 to 100
18	Avon Park, FL	148 to 100
19	Palm Coast, FL	143 to 100
20	Clearwater, FL	141 to 100
21	Jupiter, FL	138 to 100
22	Jacksonville, FL	138 to 100
23	Winter Haven, FL	137 to 100
24	Ponte Vedra Beach, FL	134 to 100
25	Palm Bay, FL	134 to 100

Note: For our analysis, we only include cities with a minimum of 50 inbound queries and 50 outbound queries, which narrows our list down to a list of 72 of the most searched Florida cities.

 

The Villages, #1 in Florida and #1 nationwide for inflow  

In 2000, this retirement community north of Orlando had a population of 25,000. Today, it's roughly the size of Savannah, Georgia, or Pasadena, California. And it keeps growing. The Villages has been one of the fastest-growing cities in the country for years, and today boasts an astronomical 3.63 in-to-out move ratio. 

High in-move ratios are typical of age-restricted communities since retirees often move into them specifically for amenities that allow them to age in place, and many expect these areas to be their last home purchase.

But the Villages’ success is on another level. With its infrastructure of golf cart transportation, its own healthcare facilities, wetlands boardwalks, pickleball courts, and even its own festivals, the Villages is more “city” and less “retirement” than any other comparable development in the country. And with 10,000 baby boomers retiring every day, more residents are on their way.

Ocala moving surge continues 

With a 2.70 move ratio, Ocala outpaces the U.S. and even Florida’s strong growth curve, and is on pace to reach roughly 724,000 by 2040. Why?

Just up the road from the Villages, Ocala is perched between this popular, growing retirement hub and the vibrant college town of Gainesville. And while it’s still the “Horse Capital of the World,” Ocala is growing fast. Ocala gets on movers’ radar screens for its rural character and affordable prices (the average home price here in December 2023 was $269,812, still 55% lower than the US average.

Davenport's Rise: From rural to move-to hotspot

Southwest of Orlando, this once sleepy outpost is now part of the popular corridor between Tampa and Orlando. It’s close enough to theme parks in Orlando to be a prime development spot for lakeside resorts, spas, and vacation rentals. The new Brightline high-speed train from Orlando to Miami has added to the region’s prowess and made Davenport, once rural, a lower-cost exurb with arteries into the heart of Florida’s economy.

As Florida gains population, it also loses natural areas, abundant parking, and cost-of-living benefits. Perhaps that’s why all three of these fast-growing cities have stagnated in terms of the average cost of housing. In all three, housing values have dropped slightly over the past year (with losses ranging from 1 to 4%). 

In fact, among the top five growing cities in Florida, just #5 Pensacola posted any kind of real estate gain from December 2022 to December 2023, 3%.

City, ST	% change in home values since 2022	Home values Dec 2022 (Zillow)	Home values Dec 2023 (Zillow)
The Villages, FL	-4%	$420,873	$403,449
Ocala, FL	-1%	$271,942	$269,812
Davenport, FL	-2%	$374,235	$365,807
Saint Augustine, FL	-1%	$449,262	$446,083
Pensacola, FL	3%	$247,970	$254,274
Zephyrhills, FL	2%	$293,650	$298,757
Panama City, FL	3%	$262,305	$270,244
Miami Beach, FL	0%	$533,628	$535,778
Stuart, FL	3%	$387,838	$398,649
Lakeland, FL	1%	$311,034	$313,776

 

Which cities are most popular to move to in 2024, so far? 

To get some insights into where people are planning to move to in 2024, we have gathered up our latest 2024 moveBuddha search data (Jan 1 to February 15) which accounts for moves planned anywhere from early January all the way through to the end of the year.

As we do for the 2023 analysis, for this 2024 forecast we only include cities with a minimum of 50 inbound queries and 50 outbound queries, which narrows our list down to a list of 7 of the most searched cities to move to in 2024. 

City, State	2023 In-to-Out Ratio	Early 2024 In-to-Out Ratio	% Change of in-to-out ratio from 2023 to 2024
Orlando, FL	1.49	1.48	-1%
Jacksonville, FL	1.38	1.39	2%
Tampa, FL	1.23	1.36	13%
Naples, FL	0.99	1.17	18%
St. Petersburg, FL	0.64	1.09	45%
Miami, FL	0.95	1.02	7%
Fort Lauderdale, FL	0.88	0.67	-21%

 

Can Florida Keep Drawing in Moves in 2024? 

With housing prices flattening, is the end of Florida’s high-speed growth over? Not even close. 

We believe Florida will continue to draw more new moves than most other states in 2024. 

Nationally, interest rates are at their apex, and many predict they’ll come down soon, increasing potential movers’ buying power and motivating newcomers to take the plunge. That explains Florida’s flattened home prices, which have managed to hold their value well amidst less buying activity, as supply has dwindled significantly with new moves. 

When buyers can afford more again, they’ll likely jump back on Florida’s still hot deals. After all, the average home in the Sunshine State still costs just ~$388,000, while homes in its big feeder states like California and New York average ~$751,000 and ~$450,000, respectively.

Additionally, tax-friendly policies in places like Florida continue to woo the ultra-rich, business owners, and celebrities. In what’s been dubed a “techxodus” from New York and California, companies relocating in Florida have already built up communities, talent pools, and economic bedrock around their new locations, increasing the chance that others will join the pipelines that fill new tech companies’ boardrooms and interview schedules.

 

Planning a move to Florida

If you've got a FL move on the horizon, these pages will help you:

• Best Florida Movers Pretty straight forward, we looked at hundreds of movers across the state and these are the best ones in Florida.
• Find your Florida moving route Want detailed help for your move? Pick where you're moving to and from in Florida, and we'll help you find out costs and movers

 

5. Sources and Methodology

This report primarily uses moveBuddha proprietary data. For understanding the cost of area homes we use Zillow’s Home Value Index.

moveBuddha proprietary data:

moveBuddha collects mover search queries via their Moving Cost Calculator which amounts to half a million searches annually from people wanting to move, this includes everything from a DIY move to a full-service move and everything in-between. This data provides real-time insights into where people are moving to and leaving from, including popular cities and states

• Data used in this report spans from January 1, 2020 through February 15, 2024 capturing searches by individuals planning a move.
• Search data amounts to over half a million searches annually. 
• For state-level analysis, we only look at moves crossing state borders.
• For city-level analysis, we only included cities with a minimum of 50 inbound queries and 50 outbound queries.
• More information about our move data can be found in our annual Migration Report.

The moveBuddha in-to-out  ratio 

• In moveBuddha migration reports, our analysts primarily use an in-to-out move ratio. The in-to-out ratio is calculated by taking the number of searches for moves divided by the number of searches for moves out of a city or state. 
• A ratio greater than 1 indicates higher inflow than outflow. 
• A ratio less than 1 indicates higher outflow. 

Sample data: 

Example state or city	2022 In-to-Out Ratio	2022 In-to-Out Ratio (x100)	2023 In-to-Out Ratio	2023 In-to-Out Ratio (x100)	% point change from 2022 to 2023
Florida	1.60	160	1.24	124	-36
The Villages, Florida	4.41	441	3.63	363	-78
Greenville, South Carolina	2.31	231	2.29	229	-2

Examples:

Florida's in-to-out ratio dropped -36 percentage points from 2022 to 2023. In 2022 there were 160 moves in for every 100 headed out, but that inflow dropped down to 124 moves in for every 100 out in 2023."

The Villages, Florida saw 441 moves in for every 100 out in 2022; in 2023, that ratio dropped 78  points to 363 moves in for every 100 out.

Greenville, South Carolina saw 231 moves in for every 100 out in 2022; in 2023, that ratio dropped just -2 points to 229 moves in for every 100 out.

Zillow — Zillow Home Value Index city data

The Zillow Home Value Index or ZHVI provides us with the typical home value within each city at a given period of time.