California Exodus Migration Report 2024–2025: Net Migration, Who’s Moving, and Why
California continues to attract talent and opportunity while also losing residents to other states. In this expert guide, we combine moveBuddha’s real-time moving-interest data with official sources to show where people are going, who is moving, and why it all matters. Whether you are debating a move or looking to optimize costs, the insights below will help you plan with confidence.
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Quick facts
Here are the headlines shaping California migration right now. These stats set the stage before we dive into city trends, destination corridors, and cost-saving tips.
- Inbound to outbound ratio (2024): California’s moveBuddha in-to-out ratio sits at 0.46, meaning 46 inbound searches for every 100 outbound. This is the lowest among all states and a decline from 0.53 in 2023, indicating outbound interest is widening.
- Net domestic migration (2023): The U.S. Census Bureau estimates roughly -338,000 net domestic migrants. Despite this, overall population grew modestly (about +0.17%) due to international migration and natural increase.
- Top outbound destinations: Texas, Florida, New York, Washington, and Arizona dominate 2024 interest among Californians leaving the state. These corridors are influenced by affordability, taxes, and job opportunities.
- Top origins for inbound movers: Texas (about 11% of inbound), New York, Washington, Florida, and Illinois send the most new residents. Many inbound movers target industry hubs and lifestyle-forward metros.
- City-level bright spots: Beverly Hills, Palm Springs, Palm Desert, Folsom, and Elk Grove show strong inbound interest. These markets combine lifestyle amenities with specific niche appeals like retirement, luxury, or family-friendly neighborhoods.
- Outbound hot spots: Several Orange County and Inland Empire cities, including Anaheim, Huntington Beach, Mission Viejo, and San Bernardino, had steep outbound ratios in 2024. High demand on these corridors can affect pricing and scheduling for movers.
Is the “California exodus” real?
Short answer: California is still losing residents to other states on net, and that outflow ticked up in early 2024 based on our moving-interest data. But the full story is more nuanced. International migration and natural increase offset some of the domestic losses, and millions still move to California each year for opportunity, lifestyle, and industry hubs.
Bottom line for movers: demand patterns influence pricing and availability. Understanding the flows helps you time your move and budget realistically.
California’s net migration in 2023–2024
Our California exodus migration report relies on moveBuddha’s in-to-out ratio plus official sources like the U.S. Census Bureau and Internal Revenue Service (IRS) to paint the full picture. Together, these signals help you make timely decisions instead of relying on outdated averages.
The moveBuddha moving-interest signal
Here is what our moving-interest signal showed in 2024. Use it as a directional indicator of where demand and pricing pressure might build.
- 2024 in-to-out ratio: California’s ratio is 0.46, meaning 46 inbound queries per 100 outbound. For comparison, 2023 came in at 0.53, so outbound interest has widened year over year.
- State ranking: California currently ranks #50 on this measure, the lowest among states in our dataset. This ranking reflects persistent and broad-based outbound interest.
Official counts (U.S. Census Bureau)
Official population components are a lagging but comprehensive read on migration. They confirm long-running patterns of domestic outflow with international inflows softening the impact.
- Net domestic migration (2023): Approximately -338,000 for California. This represents household moves across state lines and excludes international arrivals.
- Population change (2023): The state still grew slightly (about +67,000, or +0.17%) driven by international migration and births. That means California’s total population stabilized despite losing residents domestically.
- Post-2020 trend: Domestic migration has been negative each year since 2020, with estimates around -242k (2020), -367k (2021), -343k (2022), and about -338k (2023). The levels can fluctuate with the economy and housing, but remain decisively negative.
Why it matters: Domestic outflow depresses demand in some metros and can pressure prices in receiving states. But California’s global pull and economic scale continue to draw new residents, especially to specific cities and industries.
Who is leaving California?
Not every Californian is equally likely to move. Based on surveys, tax records, and our mover signals, here are the groups that show above-average propensity to leave.
- Age and stage: Single Millennials and Gen Z renters around the $50,000 income range are prominent among would-be movers. Renters and young adults in high-cost metros, especially Los Angeles, are most sensitive to housing and lifestyle costs.
- Education and high earners: There have been losses among residents with graduate degrees and higher incomes. These movers frequently cite taxes, housing costs, and business climate when weighing a relocation.
- Partisanship and sorting: Political self-sorting is a real factor. Transplants to states like Texas and Idaho often lean more conservative, while domestic outflows have made California’s remaining electorate somewhat bluer on average.
Interpretation: Cost pressure hits renters hardest, while some higher earners chase lower taxes. Political climate shapes destination choices for a subset of movers.
Why people are leaving
When we ask Californians why they move, cost consistently tops the list. These are the most common themes we hear from customers and see reflected in the data.
- Housing affordability: California’s typical home value hovers near the $780,000 to $800,000 range, squeezing first-time buyers and families. Even strong earners may struggle to compete in coastal markets without significant savings.
- Cost of living and taxes: Everyday expenses and higher marginal income tax rates push some households to lower-cost, lower-tax states. Utilities, childcare, and insurance can compound the monthly squeeze.
- Jobs and remote work: Pandemic-era flexibility opened doors to relocate while keeping paychecks. As companies recalibrate hybrid policies, some “boomerang” moves have returned, but remote and distributed work remain durable for many roles.
- Quality of life factors: Commute times, crime perceptions, climate and disaster risk like fires and floods, and school preferences all show up in surveys as secondary drivers. These factors tend to influence metro and neighborhood choices as much as state-to-state moves.
- Political climate: A meaningful share of movers cite political alignment as either a push or a pull. This tends to reinforce popular corridors to Texas, Florida, and other ideologically aligned markets.
Where Californians are moving
When Californians leave, Texas leads the way for outbound moves in 2024 interest data. Florida, New York, Washington, and Arizona follow, with affordability, taxes, and job clusters driving many decisions.
- Texas: Affordability, abundant housing supply, major job hubs such as Austin, Dallas, and Houston, and no state income tax make it a top draw. Many movers can keep West Coast salaries while cutting living costs.
- Florida: No state income tax, year-round lifestyle appeal, and growth in metro areas like Tampa, Orlando, and Miami fuel Florida’s appeal. Retirees and remote workers alike find attractive options across the state.
- New York and Washington: Big-market opportunities in finance, media, and tech continue to lure talent. For West Coast relocations, Washington also offers regional proximity and similar industry ecosystems.
- Arizona and Nevada: Lower costs with quick flights or drives back to California, plus expanding job markets boost these states’ appeal to movers who seek more space without losing access to the West Coast.
Top outbound cities by interest (2024)
City-to-city flows reveal the specific corridors that are hottest with Californians. These routes can book up quickly in peak season, so if you’re planning a move along these routes, plan ahead.
- New York, New York: New York City leads by volume among outbound city destinations from California. Strong job markets and cultural draws continue to outweigh distance for many movers.
- Other top destinations: Las Vegas, Seattle, Austin, and Portland remain favorites, with Houston, Dallas, Denver, and Miami also in the mix. Each offers a distinctive combination of jobs, lifestyle, and cost benefits.
Real-world takeaway: Strong demand corridors like California to Texas and California to New York, can book up fast in peak season. Lock quotes early and compare options.
If you are comparing full-service movers and want vetted, top-rated options, start with our expert picks below.
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Who is moving to California
Despite the outflow, tens of thousands still move to California each year. Industry hubs, creative sectors, and research institutions remain powerful magnets for talent.
- Top sending states: Texas sends the largest share of inbound interest (about 11%), followed by New York, Washington, Florida, and Illinois. These flows often mirror bidirectional professional networks in tech, entertainment, and healthcare.
- Industries that attract: Film and TV, technology, gaming, tourism and hospitality, and advanced research continue to bring in both early-career talent and experienced specialists. These sectors cluster in a handful of metro areas that offer dense opportunity.
- Top inbound cities by interest: Los Angeles dominates by volume, followed by San Diego, San Francisco, Sacramento, San Jose, and nearby Silicon Valley cities.
Christian T. moved from Brooklyn to San Francisco (April 2022) and learned a key city lesson: shipments can take longer and require permits and tight coordination in dense neighborhoods.
— Christian T., NY → San Francisco, CA (Safeway Moving), Apr 2022
Historical trends (pre-pandemic to present)
California’s migration story did not begin with the pandemic. The last decade shows a consistent domestic outflow pattern with important shifts in intensity.
- 2010s baseline: California experienced negative domestic migration most years throughout the 2010s. International inflows and births offset much of that loss at the statewide level.
- 2020–2022 acceleration: Domestic outmigration accelerated with remote work, housing pressure, and pandemic disruptions. Many households seized the chance to trade space and cost for longer commutes or new states entirely.
- 2023 stabilization: Net domestic outflow remained large (around -338,000), but overall population ticked up on international migration and natural increase. That suggests the state’s global pull remains strong.
- 2024 and beyond: moveBuddha’s in-to-out ratio shows outbound interest widening again vs. 2023. Seasonal patterns and corporate return-to-office policies will influence the final annual read.
COVID-19’s impact on California migration
The pandemic reset how many people think about home, commute, and value. These shifts reshaped California’s internal and interstate flows.
- Remote work unlocked mobility: Many Californians left high-rent homes in cities for more space and lower costs, both out of state and into California’s inland metros. Employers’ flexible policies enabled trial relocations that would not have been possible before 2020.
- Urban-to-suburban churn: Orange County, the Inland Empire, Sacramento suburbs, and Central Valley pockets saw temporary boosts that later normalized. As commute expectations and office attendance rebounded, some of that demand receded.
- Boomerang moves: A portion of early pandemic movers returned to California as offices reopened or personal preferences shifted. Boomerang activity continues but at lower levels as work arrangements settle.
Economic, social, and political impacts on California
Migration affects tax receipts, housing markets, and even how neighborhoods feel and vote. Here are the dynamics we are watching most closely.
- Tax base: IRS migration data from 2021–2022 shows one of the nation’s largest net outflows of Adjusted Gross Income from California. That reflects higher-earner departures and has downstream implications for state and local budgets.
- Labor market: Outflows can ease hiring in some sectors while tightening applicant pools in others. Tech and entertainment clusters still concentrate in California, supporting continued inbound specialist moves.
- Housing: Demand rebalanced across metros, with some coastal rents cooling briefly before stabilizing. Exurban markets absorbed new demand and new construction, shifting where price pressure showed up.
- Politics: With domestic losses and international gains, California’s electorate has trended bluer overall. City-level politics, however, remain diverse and can swing with local issues like zoning, policing, and schools.
- Representation: The 2020 census reapportionment cost California a congressional seat. Future changes will depend on how current patterns evolve through mid-decade.
How California compares to other states
In 2024, California had the lowest in-to-out interest ratio among all states in our dataset. Other consistently outbound states include New Jersey, Connecticut, and Rhode Island, but California’s gap is wider.
- California: The 2024 ratio was 0.46, down from 0.53 in 2023. This widening spread signals elevated outbound momentum compared with last year.
- New Jersey: With a 2024 ratio around 0.63, New Jersey remained outbound but less so than California. Cost and commute dynamics continue to drive moves within the Northeast.
- Connecticut: The 2024 ratio was roughly 0.69, indicating modestly outbound sentiment. Many movers weigh regional jobs against housing and tax considerations.
- U.S. average: The national average ratio was about 1.14 in 2024. States above 1.0 skew inbound, while those below 1.0 skew outbound.
Outside our proprietary data, nationwide carrier studies such as United and Allied continue to rank California among the top outbound states, reinforcing the broader picture.
City-level winners and losers in 2024
Most inbound interest
Some California cities are attracting outsized inbound interest despite statewide headwinds. These places pair strong amenities with specific lifestyle or value propositions.
- Beverly Hills: Highest in-to-out interest (about 3.1) thanks to affluent neighborhoods, low crime, and luxury amenities. Housing costs are very high, so newcomers should budget accordingly.
- Palm Springs and Palm Desert: Strong retiree appeal with more attainable prices than coastal hubs. Desert living and resort-style amenities attract remote workers and second-home buyers, too.
- Folsom and Elk Grove: Sacramento-area suburbs draw families with new construction and comparatively more affordability. Commute options and schools are top considerations for many inbound residents.
Most outbound interest
Other markets are seeing more residents look outside the state. For these corridors, early planning is essential because peak dates can sell out.
- Orange County and the Inland Empire: Anaheim, Huntington Beach, Mission Viejo, San Bernardino, and Costa Mesa showed pronounced outbound interest in 2024. Movers should expect competition for trucks and crews during summer.
- Large coastal cores: Los Angeles, San Francisco, and San Diego still attract inbound by volume, but ratios remain below 1.0 due to heavy outbound. Dense neighborhoods require careful coordination for parking, elevators, and permits.
“Hybrid” moves can save money, but logistics matter. Matt P. loaded at a freight terminal 15 miles from home during his Berkeley → St. Paul move — adding time and a rental truck to the mix.
— Matt P., Berkeley, CA → St. Paul, MN (Movingplace), Jun 2022
What this means for you: if you’re moving into a dense city such as San Francisco, line up permits and delivery access early. If you’re moving out of Orange County or the Inland Empire, shop quotes early—high outbound demand can stretch schedules and pricing.
Media narratives: myth vs. reality
Migration is complex, and headlines can oversimplify. Here are common narratives we hear and how the data actually looks.
- Myth: Everyone is leaving California. Reality: California remains the most populous state and still attracts hundreds of thousands of movers annually, even as domestic outmigration remains significant.
- Myth: No one moves to Los Angeles, San Francisco, or San Diego anymore. Reality: By volume, these metros still lead inbound interest, yet their ratios skew outbound because they are also the largest sources of exits.
- Myth: It is only about politics. Reality: Politics matters for some, but housing affordability and total cost of living are the most frequently cited push factors across surveys and customer feedback.
What’s next: 2026 outlook
We expect today’s patterns to evolve rather than reverse overnight. Here is how we see the next years shaping up for movers and policymakers.
- Base case: California likely remains a net domestic outflow state. Expect continued variation by metro and price tier.
- Watch housing supply: Faster permitting, infill, and accessory dwelling units could temper outflows among middle-income households. Supply-side progress would relieve pressure most in hot neighborhoods.
- Industry anchors: Film and TV, tech, AI, biotech, tourism, and defense should continue drawing specialized talent to key hubs. These sectors support steady professional migration even when overall flows are negative.
- Hybrid work settling: With return-to-office policies stabilizing, “boomerang” flows may slow. Trends in 2026 could look more like a new normal with less volatility than the early pandemic years.
For movers: prices and lead times will still swing by season and corridor. Use real-time quotes and stay flexible on move dates to save.
Sources and methodology
moveBuddha in-to-out ratio
We pair real-time consumer interest with historical context to spot trends early. Here is how we calculate and use our core signal.
- Data source: We analyze searches from our Moving Cost Calculator (hundreds of thousands annually) comparing inbound and outbound interest for cities and states. This provides a timely read on consumer intent.
- How the ratio works: Ratio = inbound searches divided by outbound searches. Above 1.0 suggests more inbound interest; below 1.0 suggests more outbound interest.
- City and state thresholds: State-level results reflect interstate queries; city-level results include places with at least 25 inbound and 25 outbound searches. This reduces noise and improves interpretability.
- Our 2024 data window: The figures referenced use queries from January 1, 2024 through mid-May 2024 unless otherwise noted. Seasonal updates may refine these reads as the year progresses.
Official and third-party sources
No single dataset captures every move. We triangulate moving-interest data (a leading indicator), official counts (lagging but comprehensive), and carrier reports (behavioral signals) to provide a timely, realistic view for consumers.
- U.S. Census Bureau: State population totals and components of change (net domestic migration, international migration, natural increase). The 2023 data show California with roughly -338,000 net domestic migration and a modest overall population increase.
- IRS Statistics of Income: Migration data for 2021–2022 showed net outflow of returns and Adjusted Gross Income from California. This helps illuminate income levels tied to migration.
- Carrier studies: United Van Lines and Allied Van Lines annual reports ranked outbound and inbound states. These provide behavioral context from executed moves.
- Zillow Home Value Index: Typical home values by city and state is used to benchmark affordability. We reference these values when discussing entry-level buying conditions.
- Polling and reporting: Multiple outlets cover reasons for leaving, with housing affordability frequently ranking number one. These sources help explain the “why” behind the “where.”
FAQ
Is the California exodus real?
Yes, California continues to experience significant domestic net outflows, and our 2024 moving-interest data shows outbound interest widening compared to 2023. However, it is not a one-way street. The state still gains residents through natural increase, and millions remain for career, culture, and climate. In other words, the “exodus” is real in the domestic data, but it coexists with steady inbound flows to key hubs.
Why are people leaving California?
Housing affordability and overall cost of living are the most commonly cited reasons for leaving. Taxes, commute times, and changing workplace norms around hybrid and remote work also play important roles. Some movers factor in perceived quality-of-life considerations such as schools, crime, and wildfire risk. A portion also weighs political alignment when choosing destination states like Texas or Florida.
Who is moving to California?
Inbound movers often include early-career professionals and specialized talent pursuing roles in entertainment, technology, research, and hospitality. The largest shares of inbound interest in 2024 come from Texas, New York, Washington, Florida, and Illinois. Many target Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco, and Silicon Valley for dense job markets and networking. Even in a net-outflow environment, these hubs retain strong pull for niche skills and creative industries.
Appendix: How our in-to-out ratio helps movers
We don’t just measure what’s happening, we show why it matters. If your corridor has heavy outbound demand (like California to Texas), book earlier and shop multiple quotes. If you’re moving into a high-demand city (like Los Angeles or San Francisco), permits and elevator reservations can make or break move day.
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