Fastest Warming American Cities: What It Means for Your Next Move
Summers are getting hotter — and some U.S. cities are heating up much faster than others. If you’re planning a move, rising temperatures can affect everything from utility bills to moving-day logistics and even long-term neighborhood livability.
In this guide, we break down the fastest warming American cities and layer in moveBuddha’s real-time moving interest. Stick with us for city-by-city insights, smart ways to beat the heat, and expert tips to save time and money on your move.
Our track record
Each year, 400,000+ people trust our moving recommendations. Here are a few reasons why:
- Founded in 2015
- 3,500+ moving companies analyzed
- $50,000 in moving grants delivered
- Up-to-date pricing info & industry data
- Fact-checked for accuracy
|
|
|
|
rating
Top fastest-warming U.S. cities and how they’re trending
Below is a quick snapshot of the top cities most affected by warming since 1970, alongside average 2022 summer temperatures, 2023 move interest from moveBuddha, and recent population change. Use these numbers as a directional guide to compare heat trends with current popularity and growth.
| City | Change in average summer temperature (1970–2022) | Average summer temperature (2022) | 2023 Move in-to-out ratio | Population % change (2020–2022) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reno, NV | +11.1°F | 76.1°F | 0.81 | +3.5% |
| Las Vegas, NV | +5.8°F | 91.2°F | 1.48 | +1.8% |
| Boise, ID | +5.8°F | 76.7°F | 1.50 | +0.4% |
| Salt Lake City, UT | +5.5°F | 79.3°F | 1.09 | +2.5% |
| El Paso, TX | +5.3°F | 84.5°F | 1.21 | −0.2% |
| Fresno, CA | +4.8°F | 84.5°F | 0.67 | +0.6% |
| McAllen, TX | +4.7°F | 87.2°F | 1.04 | +1.7% |
| Austin, TX | +4.3°F | 88.8°F | 1.20 | +1.3% |
| Houston, TX | +4.2°F | 86.7°F | 1.47 | +0.1% |
| Tucson, AZ | +4.2°F | 88.3°F | 1.47 | +0.7% |
| Notes: City warming data (1970–2022) courtesy of Climate Central. Average summer 2022 temperatures from NOAA’s Climate at a Glance. 2023 Move Ratio from moveBuddha Moving Cost Calculator data (1/1/23–6/8/23). Population change from U.S. Census QuickFacts (4/1/2020–7/1/2022). | ||||
What counts as “fastest-warming”
For this analysis, “fastest-warming cities” are those with the largest jump in average summer temperatures since 1970, based on Climate Central’s long-term records. We compare that warming to other real-world signals that influence where people live and how they move.
- Recent summer temperatures: To ground long-term trends in today’s reality, we include NOAA’s 2022 average summer temperatures. This helps you see how a city’s current baseline feels, not just how quickly it has changed.
- Real-time moving interest: moveBuddha’s 2023 Move In-to-Out Ratio shows the relative number of people searching to move into a city compared to those looking to move out. A ratio above 1.00 signals stronger inbound interest, even when the mercury rises.
- Population changes: U.S. Census 2020–2022 estimates reveal whether people are actually staying and growing a market, or leaving it. These snapshots complement search interest with on-the-ground population shifts.
Why this matters
Hotter cities can mean higher utility bills, greater stress on the power grid, water constraints, and more frequent extreme-heat days that affect health, outdoor work, and your move-day plan. Understanding the trade-offs lets you budget smarter, pick better move dates, and choose neighborhoods with the right heat-mitigation features.
Top 10 fastest-warming American cities
#10 Tucson, Arizona
Warming since 1970: +4.2°F | Avg summer (2022): 88.3°F | 2023 Move Ratio: 1.47 | Population change (2020–2022): +0.7%
Tucson’s blistering summers aren’t deterring movers. With a robust 2023 Move Ratio, interest remains strong, even as the city logs more days of extreme heat across Southern Arizona. If you’re moving here, plan morning load times and make sure your A/C is serviced before you arrive.
#9 Houston, Texas
Warming since 1970: +4.2°F | Avg summer (2022): 86.7°F | 2023 Move Ratio: 1.47 | Population change (2020–2022): +0.1%
Despite intense humidity and dangerous heat index spikes, movers keep eyeing Houston for jobs and affordability. Long-term risks like hurricanes and storm surge remain the bigger wildcard for growth. Newcomers should look for homes with strong insulation, shade, and backup power options.
#8 Austin, Texas
Warming since 1970: +4.3°F | Avg summer (2022): 88.8°F | 2023 Move Ratio: 1.20 | Population change (2020–2022): +1.3%
Heat waves are a way of life in Central Texas, but Austin’s draws of jobs, culture, and lifestyle keep demand high. Expect more triple-digit stretches and plan accordingly. For many, neighborhood shade and energy-efficient homes are becoming must-haves.
#7 McAllen, Texas
Warming since 1970: +4.7°F | Avg summer (2022): 87.2°F | 2023 Move Ratio: 1.04 | Population change (2020–2022): +1.7%
McAllen routinely sees extreme heat and heat index values. Even so, the region’s growth outlook remains strong, with affordability driving interest. Make a plan for cooling off the home quickly on move-in day and consider reflective window films.
#6 Fresno, California
Warming since 1970: +4.8°F | Avg summer (2022): 84.5°F | 2023 Move Ratio: 0.67 | Population change (2020–2022): +0.6%
The Central Valley’s geography traps heat, extending heat waves and straining air quality. Fresno still draws movers who want California living at lower costs than the coast. Budget for higher summer cooling loads, especially in older housing stock.
#5 El Paso, Texas
Warming since 1970: +5.3°F | Avg summer (2022): 84.5°F | 2023 Move Ratio: 1.21 | Population change (2020–2022): −0.2%
El Paso regularly endures prolonged triple-digit streaks. Even with a positive Move Ratio, long-run population growth has been muted compared to other Texas markets. Movers should plan for frequent rest breaks during loading and unloading.
#4 Salt Lake City, Utah
Warming since 1970: +5.5°F | Avg summer (2022): 79.3°F | 2023 Move Ratio: 1.09 | Population change (2020–2022): +2.5%
The Wasatch Front remains a migration magnet. Heat waves are intensifying, but demand continues, driven by jobs and access to the outdoors. Prioritize homes with good air filtration to manage both heat and periodic wildfire smoke.
#3 Boise, Idaho
Warming since 1970: +5.8°F | Avg summer (2022): 76.7°F | 2023 Move Ratio: 1.50 | Population change (2020–2022): +0.4%
Boise’s summers are warmer, and wildfire smoke is a seasonal concern across the region. Still, in‑migration remains strong for lifestyle and affordability. Consider ceiling fans and whole-house ventilation to reduce A/C load.
#2 Las Vegas, Nevada
Warming since 1970: +5.8°F | Avg summer (2022): 91.2°F | 2023 Move Ratio: 1.48 | Population change (2020–2022): +1.8%
Las Vegas is both one of the hottest and fastest-warming large metros. Even as heat records fall, interest from movers, especially from California, stays elevated. New arrivals should look for high-efficiency HVAC and low-water landscaping.
#1 Reno, Nevada
Warming since 1970: +11.1°F | Avg summer (2022): 76.1°F | 2023 Move Ratio: 0.81 | Population change (2020–2022): +3.5%
Reno’s rapid warming is influenced by regional heat, local land-use change, and urban heat island effects. Despite the jump, the metro keeps growing. Shoppers should weigh cooling costs and seasonal smoke when comparing neighborhoods.
What about Tyler, TX and Burlington, VT?
You may see Tyler, Texas and Burlington, Vermont in other “fastest-warming” lists. Why the difference? Our city rankings focus on Climate Central’s long-term summer temperature change for a consistent set of tracked U.S. cities. Other studies may include different timeframes, seasonal emphasis (like spring or winter), or a different set of cities (including smaller metros).
Tyler and Burlington are legitimate standouts in certain datasets, especially as Northeast winters and springs warm quickly, yet they don’t appear in our top 10 under the specific summer-focused method above.
Fastest-warming states: Alaska leads, Southwest states close behind
At the state level, Alaska is widely recognized as America’s fastest‑warming state, warming roughly twice as fast as the lower 48. Winters are changing fastest there, with big implications for permafrost, infrastructure, and wildfire risk.
Across the lower 48, the Mountain West and the Southwest — think Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, Utah, and parts of Texas — show some of the strongest warming. The Northeast is also an outlier for rapid winter and spring warming, which helps explain cities like Burlington appearing in non‑summer top‑lists.
For movers, this matters because seasonal extremes (winter thaw and freeze cycles in the North and long, hot summers in the Southwest) translate into infrastructure stress, insurance exposure, and day‑to‑day comfort.
National climate context: Warming is widespread
Zooming out, the broad U.S. picture shows consistent warming across regions and seasons. Below are the key patterns that shape day-to-day comfort, utility costs, and moving logistics in hotter markets.
- City-level warming is widespread: Climate Central finds summers have warmed in more than 200 U.S. cities since 1970, typically by about 2°F to 3°F. That steady rise increases both the number of hot days and the intensity of heat waves.
- Every state is warming: All 50 states have warmed since 1970, with the biggest changes concentrated in Alaska, the Mountain West, and the Southwest. The result is more regions experiencing heat stress that was once rare.
- Heat waves and warm nights are increasing: Heat waves are getting longer, and nights are staying warmer. This is a critical factor, as the body needs cooler overnight temperatures to recover. Warmer nights also push air conditioners to run later, straining grids.
Recent and seasonal trends to watch
The last decade features many of the hottest years on record. The shoulder seasons are shifting, too, which can expand the number of uncomfortable days in a year and change how you plan your move.
- Earlier springs lengthen the warm season: Spring is arriving earlier in parts of the country, which means more weeks of warm weather and longer allergy seasons. For movers, that can extend the window when daytime heat complicates heavy lifting.
- Warmer nights strain health and budgets: When nighttime lows stay high, indoor spaces don’t cool down naturally. That drives up cooling costs and can be dangerous for those without reliable air conditioning.
- Regional pattern shifts: In the Northeast, winter and spring have warmed quickly, which is why cities like Burlington show up in non‑summer analyses. In the Southwest, the summer signal remains dominant, with longer and more intense heat waves.
How heat is impacting daily life and local infrastructure
Rising heat doesn’t only make afternoons uncomfortable. It touches public health, utilities, water management, and the transportation systems that keep cities moving, especially during peak season for moves.
- Health: Heat often causes more annual U.S. weather-related fatalities than any other hazard. Risks are higher for older adults, outdoor workers, kids, and those without reliable cooling, making community cooling centers and neighbor check-ins essential during heat waves.
- Energy: Higher air-conditioning demand stresses local grids and can drive up summer electric bills. During prolonged heat waves, utilities may issue conservation alerts, and rolling outages become a bigger concern.
- Water: Drought and higher evaporation pressure supplies in the West, increasing the need for conservation. Many cities now use tiered pricing or watering schedules that new residents should understand before landscaping or filling pools.
- Transportation: Asphalt softens, rail lines can warp, and air quality can deteriorate during wildfire smoke events. These conditions can slow freight, complicate traffic, and disrupt moving-day timing.
Real moving experiences in hot-weather markets
“Move cost increased by 65%, inaccurate crew size at destination.” — Ryan, Glendale, AZ to Wilmington, DE (June 2022, Better Moves Project)
Peak-season and heat-wave timing can add complexity and cost. If you can, avoid holiday weeks and secure guaranteed crew sizes in writing.
“Had to load the trailer at a freight terminal 15 miles away from home (and had to rent a U‑Haul) due to poor company planning.” — Matt Percival, Berkeley, CA to St. Paul, MN (June 2022, Better Moves Project)
Heat can compound logistics. Have a backup plan for parking, load zones, and timing — especially if your carrier uses third-party terminals.
Climate-related risks tied to warming
Heat rarely acts alone. As summers warm and seasons shift, cities face a cluster of compounding risks that affect affordability, insurability, and long-term livability.
- Wildfires and smoke: These are increasingly common across the West and Mountain West, with smoke impacting air quality hundreds of miles away. Even if flames are distant, plan for high-efficiency filters and check air quality before scheduling strenuous move-day work.
- Drought and water scarcity: Many Southwest cities face long-run supply challenges and rising conservation requirements. Expect stricter watering rules, incentives for xeriscaping, and higher costs for heavy water use.
- Flooding and hurricanes: Gulf and Atlantic metros balance heat stress with coastal and riverine flood risk. Factor in elevation, drainage, and insurance requirements when comparing homes in these markets.
- Insurance and real estate: Higher premiums, coverage limits, and tightening underwriting in high-risk zones can impact affordability and mobility. Ask your insurer for quotes early so you’re not surprised at closing.
Are people moving away from the fastest-warming American cities?
Not yet. moveBuddha data shows Americans are still moving into many of the hottest, fastest-warming metros. That said, heat risk, water constraints, and insurance availability are starting to influence neighborhood-level choices.
- Inbound demand remains solid: Across the top 10 cities listed here, the average 2023 Move In‑to‑Out Ratio was about 1.19, meaning more people wanted to move in than out. In other words, opportunity and affordability are still winning out for many households.
- Population growth continues: Census data shows these same cities gained an average of roughly 1.2% population from 2020 to 2022. Growth may slow if costs and risks climb, but momentum remains positive in most of these markets.
Jobs, relative affordability, and lifestyle still outweigh climate concerns for many movers. But as heat risks and insurance costs rise, the calculus could shift, especially for the most exposed neighborhoods.
Related reads: Will These be the Most Populated U.S. Cities in 2100? (Before and After) and our Annual Migration Report.
What residents can do: Practical heat‑smart strategies
A little planning goes a long way when you’re moving during a heat wave or settling into a hotter city. Use these expert strategies to protect your crew, your belongings, and your budget.
- Start early or late: Plan your move for mornings or evenings because heat peaks mid‑afternoon. You’ll work faster and reduce the risk of heat-related illness.
- Hydrate and keep workers cool: Pack coolers with water and electrolytes, set up shade canopies, and use cooling towels during load day. Build in regular rest breaks so no one overheats.
- Service your A/C before move‑in: Replace filters, seal ducts, and consider smart thermostats to lower bills and maintain comfort. If the home sat vacant, have a technician tune the system before your truck arrives.
- Weatherize for heat: Add shade trees, exterior shades, attic insulation, and reflective window films to keep indoor temps down. These upgrades reduce energy costs and make summer living more comfortable.
- Know local resources: Locate nearby cooling centers and sign up for utility peak‑demand alerts. That way you have a plan if the grid is stressed or your A/C needs a quick repair.
- Use official heat tools: Check the National Weather Service HeatRisk tool and local alerts before move day. If a major heat advisory is issued, consider rescheduling or splitting the work over two cooler days.
- Expect seasonal pricing and a slower pace: Peak season plus high heat can boost demand, costs, and the need for extra labor breaks. Budget for potential surcharges and build flexibility into your schedule.
Methodology and sources
Some studies use different seasons (winter or spring), different date ranges, thresholds (for example, number of extreme‑heat days), or include a broader or alternative set of cities. We focus on summer average temperature change since 1970 across a consistent set of tracked U.S. cities.
Here are the primary sources we used and how to interpret them:
- Climate Central 2023 Summer Package: Provides city-level trend data since 1970, which we use to identify the biggest shifts in average summer temperatures. It’s a reliable way to compare long-term warming across markets.
- NOAA Climate at a Glance: Offers official temperature records and recent averages. We use 2022 summer means to describe the current baseline in each city.
- U.S. Census Bureau QuickFacts: Supplies population estimates and changes. These numbers help us connect climate trends to real-world growth on the ground.
- moveBuddha Annual Migration Report: Summarizes national moving interest and migration patterns. We combine this with Move In‑to‑Out Ratios to show how demand aligns with local heat trends.
FAQ
What is the fastest-warming city in the U.S. based on this analysis?
Reno, Nevada tops our list with an estimated +11.1°F increase in average summer temperature since 1970. This ranking is based on Climate Central’s long-term summer temperature trends, so it reflects how summers have changed over decades. While Reno’s average summer is still cooler than places like Phoenix or Las Vegas, the pace of change is striking. Movers should factor in high-desert heat, wildfire smoke in some seasons, and home efficiency upgrades when budgeting.
Why do some “warming cities” lists include Tyler, TX or Burlington, VT?
Different studies use different seasons, timeframes, and city sets, which can produce different rankings. Some focus on winter or spring warming, the number of extreme-heat days, or a broader set of smaller metros. Our rankings focus on average summer temperature change since 1970 within Climate Central’s tracked cities to keep comparisons consistent. Both Tyler and Burlington can be standouts in other seasonal or methodological lenses, even if they do not appear in our summer-focused top 10.
Are people moving away from hot cities?
Not broadly. Our 2023 Move In‑to‑Out Ratio shows continued inbound interest for many fast‑warming metros, supported by job growth and relative affordability. That said, rising cooling costs, water constraints, and insurance challenges could influence future trends. If you are considering a hot-market move, compare neighborhoods for shade, efficient homes, and strong grid reliability to manage long-term risk.
What seasons are warming fastest?
It varies by region. The Southwest sees especially strong summer warming, while the Northeast and Alaska are notable for rapid winter and spring warming. Across the country, warmer nights are one of the most consistent signals, which keeps homes warmer and increases cooling demand. Understanding your region’s pattern helps you plan move timing, home upgrades, and utility budgets more precisely.
Further reading
Explore more moveBuddha research and city-level analysis to understand how heat trends intersect with migration and affordability.
- Utah Migration Report: Deep dive on a fast-growing, fast-warming region along the Wasatch Front, including Salt Lake City trends.
- Nevada Migration Report: State-level insight that covers both Las Vegas and Reno, two of the nation’s notable warming standouts.
- San Francisco Migration Report: A look at Bay Area moves, which often connect with Central Valley destinations like Fresno.
Ready to plan your move smarter — and cooler? Get personalized moving cost estimates, compare dates around heat waves, and lock in a crew that fits your timing.
How Much do Movers Cost?
Get instant ballpark pricing. No email or phone required. It's fast, free, and easy.